When considering the price trajectory of a case of wine and its suitability for selection in a portfolio, a variety of factors need to be addressed, with each carrying their own weight and importance within the market. Not all wine is made equal.
During wine investments infancy, a high-quality wine produced by a well-known producer, from an “on” vintage (a high-quality year for a region) would have constituted a smart investment. However, as the market has expanded and new regions emerged, the data surrounding fine wine has also increased exponentially. As such, a basic level of assessment is no longer enough to justify the purchase of a wine for investment.
When first reviewing a wine for investment, we have identified 8 vectors that provide a preliminary round of analysis to eliminate unsuitable wines from our pool of options. This initial rejection of wines tightens our pool and focus onto those cases that align with our investment philosophy and a client’s goals. By individually evaluating wines within a disciplined methodology we are able to hone in on those picks that deserve a closer look amongst the swathes of options. Through a quantitative approach to finding relative value, we can interpret market information and find inefficiencies and opportunities that enable confident accountable investment.
The Core 8 - Most Influential Investment Factors Considered When Selecting Investment Wines
- Brand Power
- Does this brand improve or impact global liquidity, does it provide a premium above others in a region, could it create less of a focus on quality in off vintages?
- Drinking Window
- Does this wine have the capacity to age, can this be traded for the required investment window, which portion of the life cycle is this wine in?
- Critic Score
- Is this an exemplary wine within its own vertical history, how does it perform against peers within the vintage, is this a high water mark iteration?
- Market Liquidity
- Who does this wine appeal to on exit, will it sell at maximum price through conventional routes, how long does a sale normally take?
- Region Vintage
- How does this vintage compare within the region’s history, was it a low or high volume vintage, how do the critics feel about the vintage?
- Price Volatility
- Is this a wine where price transparency is low, is this prone to volatility, how will this affect the overall balance of a portfolio?
- Production Volume
- Low levels of production increases scarcity immediately, high volumes require higher levels of consumption and distribution, how will this impact price transparency?
- Price History
- Do all vintages rise together, where are the price ceilings relative to critic scores, at what points in their life cycles does the price plateau?
The impact of these variables will fluctuate throughout the wine’s development and requires constant qualitative reassessment. Overlaying the current market sentiment and trends is key to remaining proactive, and ensuring maximum performance from your investment.
Successful curation of a portfolio requires a similar approach to stocks and shares. Each wine can be drastically different in composition and therefore the eventual make-up of the portfolio can be impacted. A careful consideration of how the sum of these parts does or does not align with a client’s goals is key throughout.